Alongside editorial work, I publish open datasets on the mathematics of casino games — released under permissive licences with a DOI so every figure can be independently verified and reused.
An Exact Combinatorial Dataset of Video Poker Return-to-Player and Optimal Hold Strategy
An open dataset of the exact return-to-player (RTP), house edge and optimal hold strategy for common video poker games, computed by full combinatorial enumeration of all 2,598,960 possible five-card deals. The engine reproduces the published returns of 99.5439% for 9/6 Jacks or Better and 99.7283% for NSU Deuces Wild to four decimal places, and includes the source code and raw enumeration logs so the results are fully reproducible.
- Author: Zavian Thornell
- Publisher: CasinoStrategyLab
- Published: 2026 · Licence: CC BY 4.0
- DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21976923
DOI / Zenodo record · Wikidata · Explore on CasinoStrategyLab
Cite as: Thornell, Z. (2026). An Exact Combinatorial Dataset of Video Poker Return-to-Player and Optimal Hold Strategy (v1.0) [Data set]. CasinoStrategyLab. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21976923
Blackjack Expected Value Under Variable Rule Sets: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study
A comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation of blackjack house edge across 480 distinct casino rule configurations. Each configuration was evaluated over 1,000,000 simulated hands using perfect Basic Strategy, producing a high-resolution dataset of house edge estimates with standard errors below 0.2 percentage points. The rule matrix covers deck count (1/2/4/6/8), dealer soft-17 behaviour, double after split, late surrender, blackjack payout (3:2 vs 6:5), resplit aces, and doubling restrictions. Results confirm that 6:5 payout increases house edge by 1.36 pp — the single most impactful rule variation.
- Author: Zavian Thornell
- Publisher: Zenodo
- Published: 2026 · Licence: CC BY 4.0
- DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22294169
DOI / Zenodo record · Explore on CasinoStrategyLab
Cite as: Thornell, Z. (2026). Blackjack Expected Value Under Variable Rule Sets: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study (v1.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22294169
Roulette Betting Systems Under Even-Money Wagers: A Monte Carlo Simulation Dataset
Monte Carlo simulation of seven popular roulette betting systems — Flat Bet, Martingale, Fibonacci, D’Alembert, Paroli, Labouchère, and Oscar’s Grind — across 70 configurations (7 systems × 2 roulette variants × 5 bankroll sizes). Each configuration was evaluated over 100,000 simulated sessions of up to 300 spins. Results confirm that no betting system overcomes the house edge: all 70 configurations produce negative expected value. Progressive negative systems (Martingale, Labouchère) exhibit ruin probabilities up to 99.7% at small bankrolls.
- Author: Zavian Thornell
- Publisher: Zenodo
- Published: 2026 · Licence: CC BY 4.0
- DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22827190
Cite as: Thornell, Z. (2026). Roulette Betting Systems Under Even-Money Wagers: A Monte Carlo Simulation Dataset (v1.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22827190
Casino Bonus Expected Value Under Wagering Requirements: A Parametric Analysis
Closed-form parametric analysis of casino deposit-match bonus expected value across 800 configurations (5 match percentages × 8 wagering requirements × 4 game contribution rates × 5 game RTPs). The model computes exact expected value, breakeven RTP, survival probability, and wagering efficiency for each combination. Key finding: only 15.6% of bonus configurations yield positive expected value. The interaction between wagering requirements and effective game contribution is the primary determinant of profitability — not match percentage.
- Author: Zavian Thornell
- Publisher: Zenodo
- Published: 2026 · Licence: CC BY 4.0
- DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22827233
Cite as: Thornell, Z. (2026). Casino Bonus Expected Value Under Wagering Requirements: A Parametric Analysis (v1.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22827233